You hear a lot of talk today that revolves around the notion of a second civil war. That always struck me as such an oxymoronic term. As most of us understand the meaning of the word civil it hardly seems an appropriate adjective for war. But then there are different types of war, aren't there? Just as there are different meanings for the word civil.
Given the times I surely appreciate the sentiment. Nevertheless, I regard it as a classic instance of right church, wrong pew. Some wars are like flash fires: completely unexpected and all consuming. Other wars are more like a bog fire: smoldering deep and unseen, until eventually the earth sags into it. The truth is that we are already in a war in this country, and it is of that latter variety. The former may occur at any time without notice.
The idea of a second American civil war as delineated by geopolitical units is laughable. It is a fantasy. Not the part about a federal government unleashing their vast arsenal upon it's own citizens. That part is completely plausible. But the idea of a north versus south, the coastals versus the middles, competing armored columns with tactical air cover maneuvering about the countryside as a civilian population looks on in horror.... sorry. That's a Michael Bay script.
If there is to be a second American civil war, like an actual shooting war, it will be something more akin to the Spanish Civil War. I will not digress into the depths of that murky sea, you can do your own homework if you need to. A second American civil war would devolve into a series of regional conflicts with multiple competing factions, waged chiefly in key urban centers. Just as in the Spanish Civil War one should rightly expect that various foreign interests would insert themselves in sponsorship of the faction of their flavor.
Oh, and don't forget the UN crowd. You can bet they will be right there to, uh, protect your human rights. They'll be strutting around in their little blue helmets and armbands, handing out blankets, tents, hypodermic syringes and Koolaid. Lots and lots of Koolaid. They will likely recruit manpower for this operation from those members of that august body who shine as a beacon for freedom and basic human aspirations. So many to choose from.... Iran, Brazil, South Africa and, if things don't change, maybe even Canada. It will be like history's largest Red Cross mission with armored cars and round the clock cable news coverage.
Should that second American civil war actually occur, the scenario I have sketched is by no means a thorough and scientific analysis, but it is closer to the truth than the sort of renderings that make their way into television or cinema. I am afraid, however, that the discussion revolves around the wrong war entirely. America is already in a war. It's a very different kind of war. Not the war on drugs (ha ha!), not GWOT, nor any of a host of other money laundering charades across the globe. We are in the second American revolution.
Some might pin the beginnings of this at the ballot box in 2016, and while that was certainly a crucial event, I believe that the roots go back a bit further in time. Some of the seeds were sown late in the reign of Dubya, with Wikileaks as the point of the spear. 2009 and 2010 gathered more steam. There were the beginnings of organization taking form in what was briefly dubbed "the Tea Party" and other related efforts. The federal government's reaction and the mockingbird media's lockstep response are sure indicators that those at the switch were paying attention.
Others may certainly contend otherwise, but it is my belief that the quickening of this slow rolling bog fire occurred during the second Obama administration. The Benghazi affair leading up to the 2012 election was eye opening as details emerged. What was even more telling were the sham congressional hearings which followed. And then there was that key event of 2013: Edward Snowden. After that there were enough layers peeled back from the onion to start making more eyes water.
These events did not just have an impact here. They were at least in some measure the impetus to a populist groundswell throughout the west, and consequently a more aggressive counter-offensive from the establishment. To Americans bludgeoned by a lifelong cheering section for the rule of law the solution had to be accomplished through the electoral process. They didn't account for corruption and betrayal, which became more apparent with each passing election cycle.
Revolution and counter-revolution continues. It is not over. The first American Revolution lasted for eight years. This one is somewhere around the 15 year mark and who can say when or how it ends? Not to disparage the feat of arms accomplished by those prepared to make such sacrifice, not to diminish the invaluable assistance of the French, but there is one prime reason why that revolution succeeded. That reason has nothing to do with either the colonial army or the French.
The bit of American history that is taught omits one key factor. The British made an economic calculation and determined it was better to cut bait from the American colonies and focus their limited resources on India. Where they were making big money at considerably lesser expense to maintain. They knew that commerce with America would continue, regardless which banner flew over their shores.
This time there are no French or any other consequential powers to come to our aid. This time we face a foe that has too much to lose. They will not so easily relinquish their grip. This time we face a foe with considerably greater resources at their disposal.
An extra-constitutional usurpation of rule is not to be defeated by staying within the bounds of the constitution. That is as futile as bringing a knife to a gunfight. I laud all of you for your efforts, but what is your plan B? You'd better have one, because on this the 248th anniversary of our founding, the state of this revolution is in peril.
Today is Independence Day. Enjoy your fireworks, your picnics and block parties, your paid holiday. Start thinking about next year's celebration. If there is to be one...